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During the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Viktor Orbán stood out as the sole EU chief to endorse the Republican candidate. This backing came as no shock, in light of Mr Orbán's adoption of controversial notions such as the "great replacement" theory and his crackdowns on journalistic liberties. Analysts have noted that Hungary's premier essentially wrote the playbook for the Make America Great Again campaign, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon hailing him as a precursor to Trump.

Electoral Support Ahead of the Hungarian Vote

Last week, with crucial Hungarian elections only six months away, the US president reciprocated with support. While Orbán pursues a fifth consecutive term presiding over a country he describes as an illiberal state, his political group lags in opinion polls. An official trip to the US capital resulted in beyond Trump campaign souvenirs; it brought considerably more valuable pre-election gifts.

Waivers and Financial Shields

Although before admonishing EU countries on the imperative to stop all resource supplies from the Russian Federation, and threatening restrictions against nations continuing to import Russian energy, the US president consented to allow a unique waiver for the Hungarian government – the top consumer among EU members of Russian oil. As Orbán stated, the American leadership also pledged to extend a fiscal buffer to the Hungarian authorities should it faces any later issues, especially as Brussels persists in holding back large sums from the EU to the nation because of rule-of-law breaches.

The specifics of this agreement seem vague. But Mr Trump illustrated his inclination to assist ideological allies after the America extended a $20bn emergency credit line to Argentina’s far-right president, Argentina's president. While Orbán did not secure a Trump trip to Budapest to the Hungarian capital, the Washington talks still proved a profitable day’s work.

European Apprehensions and International Implications

In the corridors of the EU, Trump's actions will have highlighted the geopolitical stakes of the coming election, before which the moderate contender, Péter Magyar, holds a comfortable lead in surveys. Heads of state are accustomed not to look for principled consistency from the Trump White House, and accept the US president’s moves to diminish the bloc. But the waiver for Hungary – obtained in exchange for an pledge to purchase American natural gas and nuclear power – blatantly weakens the bloc's aims to end imports of Russian energy by 2027.

• From 2022 onward, the largest EU buyers of Russian crude, the Hungarian and Slovak nations, have funneled more than ten billion pounds to the Moscow's war operations.
• Simultaneously, the Hungarian government has repeatedly used the threat of its veto to impede moves in negotiations for Ukraine's EU membership.
• While Europe works to forge a unified and effective strategy for supporting Kyiv, and enhancing its leverage in any later diplomatic discussions, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the diplomatic table remains a significant obstacle.

Rival's Approach

Mr Magyar has steered clear of promising a major policy shift on the war in Ukraine, and centered his campaign on domestic issues, while highlighting the necessity for Hungary to start acting as a productive EU partner. Following persistent provocations, EU officials can only remain patient. Mr Orbán’s indifference to basic EU values, including the protection of minority groups and the freedom of non-governmental organizations, has remained a deeply troubling issue for the EU. His continued obstructionism on Ukrainian matters could harm its future security.